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We expect the ECB and the Fed to aim for a recession that is not too deep but will last for quite some time. The question is whether they succeed in bringing inflation under control without economic growth spiraling downwards, resulting in a deep crisis.
Due to various political risks, the economic climate in larger Western economies could deteriorate considerably in the coming years; with far-reaching consequences for, among other things, inflation, currency markets, the gold price and strategic considerations for corporations.
What are the consequences for EUR/USD of the combination of expected cold winter weather, China's struggles with its corona policy and strong wage increases in the US in particular?
Better-than-expected economic data have fueled hope of a soft economic landing. However, the inverse shape of the German and especially the US yield curves give a stark warning of a hard landing.