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What are the specific risks for the financial markets? What political risks will have an impact?
What levels for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP can you expect in the months ahead. What are the scenarios?
To what levels will interest rates rise? And how fast? Is it necessary to hedge your interest rate risk?

Risk & Strategy publications

A recession has yet to occur, but optimism is too high

Eddy Markus
Friday, 15 November 2019
Eddy Markus

Disappointing developments in the trade war and low economic growth will shortly carry more weight for the financial markets than the loose monetary polici

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Spiralling into madness

Andy Langenkamp
Thursday, 7 November 2019
Andy Langenkamp

Factors such as persistent downward pressure on inflation, low growth and demographic challenges are forcing authorities to continue to raise debt levels to prevent the house of cards from collapsing – while the political and economic pillars underpinning the house are becoming increasingly shaky. This might even require the redefining of safe-haven assets.

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Foreign Currencies publications

Uncertainty about Brexit and trade relations will continue to cause problems for EUR and GBP

Eddy Markus
Monday, 18 November 2019
Eddy Markus

The increase in EUR/USD thus far has been disappointing given the decreasing interest rate differentials between the US and the Eurozone. Is the euro a weak currency or is the dollar a surprisingly resilient currency in the face of multiple rate cuts and quantitative easing by the Fed?

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Risk-on phase gives euro temporary boost

Eddy Markus
Monday, 4 November 2019
Eddy Markus

De-escalation of the US-China trade war has a temporarily negative effect on safe haven currencies while it provides a boost to currencies of trade dependent economies.

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More Foreign Currencies publications

Interest Rates publications

End in sight for upward correction in long-term interest rates

Ron Markus
Monday, 11 November 2019
Ron Markus

The remaining upside potential for long-term rates is limited as we expect the current market optimism will give way to increasing political tensions, doubts about monetary policy effectiveness and a lack of sufficient fiscal easing. 

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Long-term interest rates benefit from wave of optimism

Ron Markus
Monday, 28 October 2019
Ron Markus

The long-term interest rates are appreciating as a result of de-escalation of the trade war and the expectation that this will boost the confidence of companies and consumers. However, the question is whether upward pressure on interest rates will continue, because the underlying economic growth is deteriorating rather than improving.

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More Interest Rates publications