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Financial markets are starting to revolt against the on-going piling up of debt. Governments will try and find an escape route via a combination of increasing budget deficits and inflation policies. Which economy will be tempted first and go down that path?
'Keep buggering on' is what numerous Western countries have done in the years after the financial crisis. Will this come back to haunt them in 2019?
As opposed to Europe, the US still retains some room for monetary stimulus in case of a slowdown. This is not necessarily negative for the dollar.
Despite the fact that the pound may temporarily strengthen due to Brexit relieve, we see this effect disappear in the future.
The ECB could postpone a first rate hike amid slowing growth. Nevertheless, a difficult and challenging task will await Draghi’s successor as new ECB president
Economic leading indicators and market developments signal that the next policy move by the Fed is a rate cut. Yet, we think the Fed will hike rates this year…