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What are the specific risks for the financial markets? What political risks will have an impact?
What levels for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP can you expect in the months ahead. What are the scenarios?
Publications
To what levels will interest rates rise? And how fast? Is it necessary to hedge your interest rate risk?

Risk & Strategy publications

Is the stock market blind to an impending recession?

Eddy Markus
Thursday, 5 September 2019
Eddy Markus

Yield curves in the US and Europe are inverted and/or interest rates on government bonds are extremely low or even at negative levels. This would be a reliable predictor of a recession in the past. Why are share prices still very high in this scenario?

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From Fire & Fury to Mr Nice Guy?

Andy Langenkamp
Monday, 16 September 2019
Andy Langenkamp

Will Trump increase the chances of steady economic growth and consequently a stronger dollar? Or were the signs of a more moderate stance simply the flavour of the week and will the president go wild again, perhaps to take forceful action against Iran after the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure?

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More Risk & Strategy publications

Foreign Currencies publications

The rise of the dollar has yet to end

Eddy Markus
Monday, 9 September 2019
Eddy Markus

The dollar has declined against the euro. We expect the decline to shift to an increase because the trade war is likely to continue, and the US economy is still in relatively good shape.

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Brexit continues to be an uncertain factor for the pound

Ron Markus
Monday, 9 September 2019
GBP
Ron Markus

A no-deal Brexit would require negotiations on new trade agreements – in which the British economy would be far too small compared to the economies of the US, Europe and China and so on to have any significant impact. This would be a negative scenario for the UK economy and the pound.

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More Foreign Currencies publications

Interest Rates publications

European long rates fell too sharply

Ron Markus
Monday, 2 September 2019
Ron Markus

There are growing doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy while Eurozone weakness is mainly due to external forces. Can the ECB still make a difference and if so, will it do so next week?

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Bond markets need to let off steam

Eddy Markus
Monday, 2 September 2019
Eddy Markus

Markets have become too gloomy about the prospects of the US economy. However, when growth starts surprising to the upside, Trump could use this to escalate the trade war.

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More Interest Rates publications