Yield curves in the US and Europe are inverted and/or interest rates on government bonds are extremely low or even at negative levels. This would be a reliable predictor of a recession in the past. Why are share prices still very high in this scenario?
Will Trump increase the chances of steady economic growth and consequently a stronger dollar? Or were the signs of a more moderate stance simply the flavour of the week and will the president go wild again, perhaps to take forceful action against Iran after the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure?
A no-deal Brexit would require negotiations on new trade agreements – in which the British economy would be far too small compared to the economies of the US, Europe and China and so on to have any significant impact. This would be a negative scenario for the UK economy and the pound.