How fast will we return to ‘normal’ interest rate levels over the next couple of years? What type of monetary policy will be pursued by the major central banks and when will interest rates start rising? We will closely monitor events in our two-weekly reports and offer you the most likely scenarios for interest rates in the US and Eurozone.
The interest rate markets still offer excellent opportunities to hedge your organisation against rising interest rates in the future. Please contact us if you are considering hedging your risks. Our consultants make the bank’s pricing transparent and assist you in concluding interest rate derivatives. This ensures you will not overpay interest.
The Bank of England will step on the brakes a little harder than the ECB, because the UK labor market - mainly due to Brexit - is much tighter and therefore the risk of a wage-price spiral is greater. As a result, EUR/GBP could eventually fall towards 0.80 after moving sideways for a while. With respect to the dollar, the depreciation of the euro has not yet come to an end…
Forecasts for EURUSD have decreased, looking back from the poll last month. On the short term (2022) and medium term (2023) the median forecast has dropped on average by 2 cents. On the long term (2024 and further) the median is still around the same levels as the prior month. The exception here is the 1 cent drop in 2026 (from 1.21 to 1.20).
In Asia, the situation is different for EURJPY. In the short term (2022) there is an increase in the median forecast. In the medium term (2023) we also see an increase in the median. In the long term (2024 and 2025) there is an increase in the median, but the number is flattening.
Back in Europe the median forecast for EURGBP shows something different. In the short (2022 and 2023) and medium (2024) term there are slight differences, but the median is relatively stable. In the long term (2025) the median forecast increased from 0.84 to 0.87.
In Switzerland, the short term (2022 and beginning 2023) shows a little decrease. The medium term shows an increase and there is a long new term (2025) forecast of 1.11.
Our Monthly FX Poll consists of more than just these four major currency pairs, so please find in our Monthly FX Poll an overview of the predictions of approximately 50 leading banks and brokers for the most common traded currency pairs (including the date for each party).
The markets are discounting that at the end of the year the Fed and the ECB have tightened monetary policy to such an extent that the economy will slow down significantly. There are a number of reasons why the markets are now anticipating too much rate hikes. Therefore, we expect a temporary decline in long-term interest rates in the coming months.