How fast will we return to ‘normal’ interest rate levels over the next couple of years? What type of monetary policy will be pursued by the major central banks and when will interest rates start rising? We will closely monitor events in our two-weekly reports and offer you the most likely scenarios for interest rates in the US and Eurozone.
The interest rate markets still offer excellent opportunities to hedge your organisation against rising interest rates in the future. Please contact us if you are considering hedging your risks. Our consultants make the bank’s pricing transparent and assist you in concluding interest rate derivatives. This ensures you will not overpay interest.
For the time being, monetary policy is unlikely to substantially support the pound. In addition, the UK has exceedingly high twin deficits. This means that the pound will tend to decline if the UK fails to offer far higher interest rates.
Median forecasts for the EURUSD have moved a bit since last month. On the short term (Q3 2021 – Q2 2021), forecasts have remained the same or have increased a bit. However, on the medium term (2022 – 2023) forecasts have decreased a bit. Forecasts for the longer term (2024) have remained stable. In most cases, mean forecasts have remained pretty stable.
In Asia, median forecasts for the EURJPY have increased on the short term (Q3 2021 – Q2 2021), while long term forecasts (2023) have decreased. Median forecasts for the medium term have remained stable. Mean forecasts follow a similar path as median forecasts.
Going back to Europe, forecasts for EURGBP have remained pretty stable up to 2022, but have decreased for 2023. Forecasts in Switzerland (EURCHF) have been pretty stable up to Q2 2022, but afterwards have decreased a bit.
Our Monthly FX Poll consists of more than just these four major currency pairs, so please find in our Monthly FX Poll an overview of the predictions of approximately 50 leading banks and brokers for the most commonly traded currency pairs (including the date for each party).
The damage done by the Delta variant and the decline in long-term rates have caused downgrades of many growth forecasts. We beg to differ, as many factors that have caused the decline in long-term rates are temporary and will soon fade. Hence, we expect growth expectations will soon experience more upward pressure and that long-term rates are close to a bottom.
A convenient overview (Excel sheet) of the FX rates, swap rates, Money Market deposits, Futures, Euribor and Libor fixings, Stock market indices, etc. A snapshot of the markets before 09h30 CEST.