How fast will we return to ‘normal’ interest rate levels over the next couple of years? What type of monetary policy will be pursued by the major central banks and when will interest rates start rising? We will closely monitor events in our two-weekly reports and offer you the most likely scenarios for interest rates in the US and Eurozone.
The interest rate markets still offer excellent opportunities to hedge your organisation against rising interest rates in the future. Please contact us if you are considering hedging your risks. Our consultants make the bank’s pricing transparent and assist you in concluding interest rate derivatives. This ensures you will not overpay interest.
The Western world should take notice of the remarkable things happening in the UK right now. It’s the first country threatened by a wage-price spiral while monetary policy is still extremely accommodating, and all sorts of bottle necks are pushing up inflation. Will the policy responses of Westminster and the Bank of England be instructive for other economies?
Forecasts for the EURUSD have mostly decreased compared to last month. Median forecasts have decreased on both the short term (Q4 – Q2) and the medium term (2022 -2024). On the long term (2025) median forecasts have decreased as well. All mean forecasts have decreased.
In Asia, the situation differs a bit. Median forecasts have remained mostly stable on the short term (Q4 – Q2), but medium term (2022 & 2023) median forecasts have decreased. Long term (2024) median forecasts have remained stable. Mean forecasts have developed in a similar manner as median forecasts.
Back in Europe median forecasts for the EURGBP have remained stable until Q3 2022 (except for Q4 2021) and have increased in the periods thereafter. In Switzerland median forecasts for the EURCHF have decreased for all periods, expect for Q2 2022, where they remained stable.
Our Monthly FX Poll consists of more than just these four major currency pairs, so please find in our Monthly FX Poll an overview of the predictions of approximately 50 leading banks and brokers for the most commonly traded currency pairs (including the date for each party).
We expect central banks to keep on hinting at monetary tightening, but downward pressure on growth will mean that the Fed won’t start raising interest rates in earnest before 2023. However, we do expect monetary tightening in the US this year in the form of tapering.
A convenient overview (Excel sheet) of the FX rates, swap rates, Money Market deposits, Futures, Euribor and Libor fixings, Stock market indices, etc. A snapshot of the markets before 09h30 CEST.